the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article: Harnessing Machine Learning methods for climate multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment
Abstract. In recent years, interest in data-driven methods, such as machine learning and multivariate statistics for multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment has surged, due to their ability to integrate vast amounts of data in modelling complex non-linear relationships between hazard and risk factors. This review explores data-driven methods in climate multi-hazard and risk analysis, focusing on four themes: (i) data processing and collection; (ii) hazard identification, prediction and analysis; (iii) risk analysis; and (iv) future risk scenarios under climate change. Key findings highlight the extensive use of machine learning to combine Earth observations and climate data for downscaling and land use and land cover characterisation; the application of deep learning for hazard prediction; the use of ensemble methods for risk analysis; and the growing emphasis on explainable AI frameworks. Training of supervised machine learning approaches on past impacts to model future risk through climate projections also emerged as a significant area. Future research should prioritize multi-hazard interactions, particularly triggering and cascading effects, integrate dynamic vulnerability and exposure factors, and address uncertainties associated with using machine learning for extrapolation. Advancements in Earth observations and textual data integration, alongside the development of open-access disaster catalogues, will be crucial for improving multi-risk analyses and supporting AI-driven early warning systems tailored to regional needs.
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-670', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 Mar 2025
This manuscript reviews machine learning (ML) and statistical approaches for climate-related multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment. It is organized around four themes—data processing, hazard prediction, risk analysis, and future scenarios—and incorporates auxiliary methods such as explainable AI and copula modeling. While the topic is timely and relevant, the manuscript has issues in contribution, analytical depth, structural clarity, and language quality.
Major Concerns:
- Lack of Scientific Novelty or Conceptual Contribution: The paper lacks scientific novelty and conceptual contribution. It does not introduce new concepts, frameworks, or theoretical insights. Instead, it compiles existing literature without offering a critical synthesis or identifying research gaps. The review does not significantly advance the understanding of multi-hazard or multi-risk modeling compared to previous reviews, and its largely descriptive discussion limits its value as a synthesis resource.
- No PRISMA flow diagram is provided, and Search strings, filtering criteria, and quality assessment processes are not disclosed. Suggest including a PRISMA diagram and methodological appendix (even in supplementary materials) to ensure transparency.
- Poor Language Quality: The manuscript contains many grammatical errors, awkward phrasing, and redundant or overly long sentences. The language undermines clarity and makes the manuscript difficult to read. Given its role as a review article, this significantly reduces its accessibility and utility to the scientific community. A full professional language revision is essential.
- Weak Structure and Inconsistent Framing: The manuscript shifts terminology from "machine learning methods"from the title to "data-driven methods" in the text, without clear justification. The manuscript includes a statistical method (copula), which is not a machine learning method. Poor coherence across sections: Overlap and redundancy between sections, and not clearly defined (e.g., 3.1.2 vs. 3.1.1 regarding satellite images observed soil moisture belongs to EO or climate data).
Additional Comments:
- Lines 30–35: “...can advance multi-hazard and multi-risk...” → vague and informal phrasing.
- Line 206: “his information…” → typo.
- Line 313: “even if...” → incorrect conjunction; use “although” or “even though.”
- Line 328: “images form...” → should be “images from.”
- Line 335: “3.1 Multi-hazard…3.2.1 Identify...” → unclear subsection formatting.
- Line 414: “With regards to” → incorrect phrase; use “With regard to.”
- Line 421: “...showing popular results...”
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670-RC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Davide Mauro Ferrario, 27 May 2025
We thank the reviewer for the constructive comments, which have helped us improve the clarity, structure, and scientific contribution of the manuscript. Below, we address each of the concerns raised:
- Scientific Novelty and Conceptual Contribution
We respectfully disagree with the assessment that the manuscript lacks scientific novelty. While we do not propose a new algorithm or model, we believe the manuscript makes an original contribution by reframing the fragmented field of data-driven multi-hazard and multi-risk modeling through a structured and forward-looking synthesis. Moreover:
- We'll reframe the four core research questions, which collectively reflect a risk-modeling pipeline, from data processing to hazard prediction, risk assessment, and future scenario modeling. This framing provides a clear conceptual lens through which to interpret recent developments in the field.
- We'll focus the synthesis on actionable themes that cut across methods and applications, including:
- The integration of Earth Observation (EO) and textual data for multi-risk modeling;
- The challenge of model transferability and scalability across regions and hazard types;
- The role of model interpretability and explainable AI in machine learning application for multi-risk;
- The use of hybrid models (e.g., physics-informed neural networks) to bridge physical realism and data-driven inference.
- We'll revise the discussion and conclusion sections to more explicitly identify research gaps, including:
- Limited use of ML approaches that incorporate causal reasoning or address cross-sectoral risks;
- A need for better spatiotemporal validation techniques in multi-risk contexts;
- The importance of uncertainty quantification (and communication), particularly under future climate change scenarios.
We believe this review is among the first to explicitly integrate machine learning and statistical approaches (including copulas) through a multi-hazard lens, and to assess their value for both scientific insight and decision support across multiple scales.
- PRISMA methodology
We appreciate this comment and will add a PRISMA flow diagram and a methodological appendix (now included as supplementary material) to better describe the search strings, screening criteria, and inclusion/exclusion processes, improving the transparency and reproducibility of our literature selection.
- Poor Language Quality
We fully agree that language quality is essential for a review article. In response, the manuscript will undergo a thorough professional-style language revision. We'll address issues related to grammar, structure, and clarity by:
- Simplifying overly long or technical sentences;
- Removing redundancy across sections;
- Improving flow, particularly in the methods and discussion.
These changes will enhance the readability and accessibility of the manuscript for a broad interdisciplinary audience.
- Weak Structure and Inconsistent Framing
We will clarify our use of the terms "machine learning" and "data-driven methods" in the introduction. The term "data-driven methods" is explicitly defined as an umbrella term that includes both machine learning techniques and other statistical approaches. This choice is motivated by the key role played by non-ML statistical tools (such as copulas) in multi-hazard modeling. We'll revised section titles, transitions, and content to reduce redundancy and improve coherence across the manuscript. In particular the overlap between Sections 3.1.1 and 3.1.2, will be clarified distinguishing between EO-based data sources and climate reanalysis/model data. We hope these revisions address the reviewer’s concerns and demonstrate our commitment to improving the clarity, rigor, and contribution of the manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670-AC2
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-670', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Apr 2025
Major:
1, The manuscript outlines four key research questions, but their link to data-driven climate multi-hazard analysis is not clear. Please clarify how these questions address existing gaps, improve risk assessments, and contribute quantitatively or qualitatively to the field.2, Data assimilation is a critical component of modern climate analysis yet is missing from the discussion. Include recent developments that demonstrate its role in enhancing multi-hazard/risk assessments.
3, Uncertainty quantification in climate risk studies is necessary for the analysis of hazard/risk. However, they are not discussed.
4, The current focus is on pure data-driven models. Please discuss the emerging hybrid modeling that integrate physical laws, and compare their strengths and limitations.
5, Clarify the differences and complementarities between ML and copula techniques. Using practical examples if possible.
6, Reframe the discussion to emphasize how Earth observation data, combined with ML and copula techniques, leads to improved multi-hazard and risk assessments that benefit decision-makers. Try to rephrase from the perspective of assessments instead of technical comparisons.
Minor:
1, Ensure all citations (e.g., “Linkov et al., 2022” and “S. Yu & Ma, 2021”) are consistently and correctly formatted.2, ‘understand’ is a strong word for many data-driven models as they do not really capture the underlying generative process. Replace “understand” with “modeling,” “characterization,” or “representation” to better reflect the capabilities of data-driven models.
3, Some grammatical and stylistic edits are suggested for improved readability.
4, Correct the numbering so that the “Multi-hazard” subsection is labeled 3.2 instead of 3.1.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670-RC2 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Davide Mauro Ferrario, 27 May 2025
We thank Reviewer 2 for the constructive and detailed feedback, which has helped improve the clarity, scope, and scientific depth of our manuscript. Below, we provide a point-by-point response to each of the reviewer’s comments.
1. Link between the research questions and multi-risk
We have revised the introduction and clarified the framing of the four research questions to better articulate how they address current gaps in the literature and contribute to advancing data-driven multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment.
- RQ1 focuses on the challenge of data preparation and preprocessing in ML-based hazard modeling. We highlight how this includes increasing hazard resolution, bias correction, and the integration of diverse sources of exposure and impact data, such as Earth observation and unstructured textual data (e.g., social media). This step is critical in enabling ML applications where data scarcity and heterogeneity persist.
- RQ2 addresses the modeling of multiple interacting hazards, emphasizing the use of Deep Learning techniques for forecasting compound events and copula models for representing statistical dependencies. This question targets methodological gaps in representing both simultaneous and consecutive hazard interactions.
- RQ3 explores how ML can support risk assessment, in addition to hazard modeling. We discuss the importance of data availability on past impacts and the need for model interpretability to ensure that outputs are actionable and trustworthy in real-world applications.
- RQ4 introduces the integration of future climate scenarios into multi-risk modeling. We have strengthened the revised manuscript by explicitly discussing the role of uncertainty quantification, including ensemble modeling, probabilistic approaches, and interpretability methods.
These questions collectively offer a structured framework that links data engineering, compound hazard detection, multi-risk modeling, and future scenario analysis, contributing both technically and practically to the field.
2. Role of Data Assimilation
We fully acknowledge the importance of data assimilation in climate science and weather forecasting, particularly its role in producing high-quality reanalysis datasets that underpin many hazard models (e.g., ERA5, CHIRPS). However, we consider data assimilation a distinct field of study, more closely tied to physical modeling and numerical weather prediction.
To maintain focus, we have not included a detailed discussion on this topic. That said, we have added a brief reference in the discussion to acknowledge the enabling role of data assimilation in the broader modeling ecosystem and to direct interested readers to relevant literature.
3. Uncertainty Quantification
We agree that uncertainty quantification is a key component of hazard and risk analysis. The revised manuscript now includes a specific discussion that distinguishes between input data uncertainties, such as variability across ensemble climate projections or differences between reanalysis products; model-based uncertainties, stemming from generalization limits and the structure of ML models. We highlight key methods, including probabilistic ML, Bayesian networks (Fan et al., 2021; Salvaña, 2025; Tierz et al., 2017), and Gaussian Processes (Li and Wang, 2025; Tazi et al., 2024), which provide built-in estimates of prediction confidence. We also emphasize how interpretability tools like SHAP contribute to transparency and communication of uncertainty in decision-making.
4. Hybrid Modeling (ML + Physical Constraints)
We appreciate this suggestion and have added a dedicated section on hybrid modeling approaches that integrate physical constraints into ML frameworks. We focus particularly on Physics-Informed Neural Networks and related hybrid architectures that embed conservation laws or differential equations directly into the learning process. These approaches are gaining traction in domains such as climate (Lütjens et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2023), hydrology and compound flooding (Feng et al., 2023; Munoz et al., 2024; Xu et al., 2024). We compare these hybrid approaches with pure ML models, noting that hybrid models often generalize better and produce more interpretable outputs, but can be harder to train and require expert-defined physical constraints (Bonfanti et al., 2024; Cuomo et al., 2022; Farea et al., 2024; Kashinath et al., 2021). We have also linked this topic to RQ1 and RQ2, where the trade-off between physical realism and data-driven flexibility is most relevant.
5. Differences and Complementarities between ML and Copulas
We have revised Section 4.3 to more clearly distinguish the roles of ML and copula techniques. While ML excels in detecting high-dimensional, non-linear patterns, copulas are better suited for modeling explicit dependencies, especially in the tails of distributions, a crucial feature for compound risk assessment. We now include examples where the two approaches are complementary: ML models can generate features or classify compound events, while Copulas can then model the joint probability of those features or events (Couasnon et al., 2018; Jiang et al., 2023). This combination offers interpretable, probabilistic outputs while leveraging the predictive power of ML.
6. Role of Earth Observation (EO) in multi-risk assessments
We have revised the discussion to better highlight the value of EO data, particularly when integrated with ML, in supporting actionable multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments. Rather than emphasizing technical differences, we now focus on operational value and decision support:
- Timely and spatially explicit indicators: EO enables detection of hazard, exposure, and impact metrics (e.g., vegetation stress, land cover change, water availability), improving early detection and event characterization.
- Expanded geographic coverage: EO provides access to consistent observations in remote and data-scarce areas, facilitating model scalability and application in developing countries (Chauhan et al., 2025; Kabiru et al., 2023).
- Recovery monitoring and disaster response: EO data such as nighttime lights and mobility proxies support tracking short-term disaster response and long-term recovery, helping planners assess evolving vulnerabilities (Qiang et al., 2020).
These points are now emphasized in the revised manuscript to align the discussion with practical needs of stakeholders and decision-makers.
Minor Comments
- All citations will be reviewed and updated for consistency and format.
- We'll revise the manuscript to avoid the term “understand” when referring to ML models, replacing it with more appropriate terms such as “model,” “characterize,” or “represent.”
- The manuscript will be subject to a comprehensive language revision, improving grammar, style, and readability.
- Section numbering will be corrected, and “Multi-hazard” is now properly labeled as Section 3.2.
We thank the reviewer again for their valuable and constructive feedback, which has led to a stronger and more focused manuscript. We hope that the revisions address all points satisfactorily.
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Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Davide Mauro Ferrario, 27 May 2025
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