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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-584
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-584
10 Jun 2025
 | 10 Jun 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Review article: Past and future climate–related hazards in Indonesia

Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo, Hanggar Ganara Mawandha, Edvin Aldrian, Abdul Muhari, and Daisuke Komori

Abstract. Indonesia, one of the most populous countries, ranked fifth globally for climate-related hazards and disasters in the past five years. This study aims to assess historical trends, future projections, and potential implications of climate-related hazards in Indonesia. We synthesize literature, analyze historical datasets, and examine CMIP projections to assess the trend of extreme climate events and their potential effects on climate hazards. Results show that current records and studies predominantly highlight floods as the most common hazard in the tropical–humid region, followed by landslides, droughts, extreme weather, and wildfires. Historical evidence indicates an increasing threat of flood by intensifying amplitude and frequency of rainfall extremes by around 25 %, especially in most northern parts of Indonesia (Kalimantan, northern Sumatera, parts of Sulawesi, and Papua), while the drought amplified by 60 % over the country across the dry regions from southern Sumatera, Java to Nusa Tenggara. These trends are projected to persist under future climate scenarios (SSPs or RCPs). We found that urban factors like land subsidence and landuse change, particularly in cities like Jakarta, may worsen flood impacts in the future. Future studies should also examine rainfall-induced landslides and flash floods in other vulnerable areas, such as steep areas. Additionally, drought, often overlooked in this country, requires comprehensive research given its unique slow onset and its agricultural and societal effects. Global teleconnection mechanisms (ENSO, IOD, MJO) have intensified wet and dry hazards in recent decades and must be considered. A more integrated approach, combining cascading process models, impact assessments, early warning systems, and adaptive land-use practices, is essential to enhance resilience against climate hazards in Indonesia.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo, Hanggar Ganara Mawandha, Edvin Aldrian, Abdul Muhari, and Daisuke Komori

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Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo, Hanggar Ganara Mawandha, Edvin Aldrian, Abdul Muhari, and Daisuke Komori
Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo, Hanggar Ganara Mawandha, Edvin Aldrian, Abdul Muhari, and Daisuke Komori

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Short summary
This study reveals that floods dominate the country, followed by landslides, droughts, extreme weather, and wildfires. Climate change has increased extreme rainfall by ~25 %, especially in northern regions (Kalimantan, northern Sumatera, Sulawesi, Papua), and amplified it by ~60 % in drier areas (southern Sumatera, Java, Nusa Tenggara). Further studies on rainfall-induced landslides, flash floods, and Global teleconnections (ENSO, IOD, MJO) intensifying extreme events are needed.
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