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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2186
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2186
28 May 2025
 | 28 May 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

A Transformer-based agent model of GEOS-Chem v14.2.2 for informative prediction of PM2.5 and O3 levels to future emission scenarios: TGEOS v1.0

Dehao Li, Jianbing Jin, Guoqiang Wang, Mijie Pang, and Hong Liao

Abstract. Efficient and informative air quality modeling in future emission scenarios is vital for effective formulation of emission reduction policies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) struggle with the computational demands required for timely predictions. While advanced response surface models (RSMs) were proposed and offered much faster estimates than CTMs, they fall short in providing comprehensive estimates of future air quality due to their simplistic and inflexible structural frameworks. Additionally, current RSMs often have difficulty simultaneously accounting for varying emission variables and the effects of regional transport, which limits their applicability and undermines prediction accuracy. In this study, an informative future air quality prediction model "TGEOS v1.0" based on the Transformer framework is developed as an efficient GEOS-Chem agent model. TGEOS is able to swiftly and accurately conduct online predictions of probability distributions for PM2.5 and O3 concentrations under future emission scenarios and capture potential extreme pollution events. The model incorporates sectoral emissions of up to 26 distinct species as well as the impacts of regional emissions and meteorology on pollutant concentrations, enhancing its versatility and predictive accuracy. The spatial and probability distributions predicted by TGEOS are in good agreement with GEOS-Chem, with the correlation coefficients for PM2.5 and O3 exceed 0.97 and 0.96, respectively. Notably, TGEOS achieves remarkable computational efficiency, executing one-year predictions in approximately 2.51 seconds. Compared with other machine learning models, TGEOS based on Transformer framework showcases superior performance, underscoring the potential of the Transformer framework in air quality modeling.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Dehao Li, Jianbing Jin, Guoqiang Wang, Mijie Pang, and Hong Liao

Status: open (until 26 Jul 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2186 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 22 Jun 2025 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Jianbing Jin, 24 Jun 2025 reply
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 24 Jun 2025 reply
Dehao Li, Jianbing Jin, Guoqiang Wang, Mijie Pang, and Hong Liao
Dehao Li, Jianbing Jin, Guoqiang Wang, Mijie Pang, and Hong Liao

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Short summary
Efficient air quality modeling in future emission scenarios is vital for air pollution policies. Restricted by model structure, previous methods are computationally expensive or focus on single target. Thus, based on advanced machine learning framework "Transformer", this study introduces a rapid GEOS-Chem proxy model "TGEOS v1.0". Its predictions are similar to the GEOS-Chem v14.2.2 output. It can also predict the probability distributions of PM2.5 and O3 under various emission scenarios.
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