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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-121
21 May 2025
 | 21 May 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

DSCALE v0.1 – an open-source algorithm for downscaling regional and global mitigation pathways to the country level

Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas

Abstract. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide low-carbon scenarios at a global scale or for broad economic aggregates, as running these models for every country would be computationally demanding. Lack of national results from IAMs, hinders the enhancement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and LTS (Long Term Strategies) in accordance with the 1.5C target and best available science. To address this limitation, we have developed DSCALE (Downscaling Scenarios to the Country level for Assessment of Low carbon Emissions), a novel algorithm designed to downscale regional IAMs outcomes to the country level. In this paper we present the methodology and show results for both current policy and 1.5°C scenarios from the NGFS 2023 release. This downscaling tool provides insights for energy and emission developments and targets at the country level consistent with global scenarios from IAMs. Moreover, this tool facilitates the integration of IAMs results with other models and tools requiring energy and emissions data at the country level, such as the macroeconomic NiGEM model.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas

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Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas
Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Philip Hackstock, Florian Maczek, Jarmo Kikstra, and Reinhard Haas

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Short summary
Assessments of future emissions and the effectiveness of climate policies are usually performed with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Bringing together insights from IAMs with information at the country level has remained difficult, as these models provide results for a limited number of regions. This paper presents DSCALE, a novel algorithm designed to downscale regional IAMs outcomes to the country level and shows results for a current policy and a 1.5C scenario from the NGFS 2023 project.
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